Since we began highlighting the return of fiscal leadership as a primary driver for economic and market activity nearly two years ago, we’ve seen the return to central bank dominance, particularly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. This has significant implications for...
There’s a growing pile of negative-yielding debt around the world amid extraordinary monetary policy initiatives. While maintaining respect for global money flows, we believe the combination of economic fundamentals, domestic monetary policy, and a widening federal...
ECONOMY: MIXED U.S. ECONOMIC DATA IN AUGUST U.S. economic data was mixed in August, reflecting the complicated macroeconomic environment in the midst of high trade uncertainty. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.5% month over month in July, the...
We lowered our 2019 earnings growth forecast for the S&P 500 Index on August 19 due to increased risk to economic growth and corporate profits from the ongoing trade conflict between the United States and China. Until we get clarity on trade, we believe earnings...
We recently reduced our year-end forecast range for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield from 2.5–2.75% to 1.75–2%. This significant reduction reflects what we consider the many somewhat curious aspects of the domestic and global macroeconomic environments. Trade...
